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Schalke 04 vs Leverkusen

Sat 22 May 2027, 13:30 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Schalke 04 win: 28.9%

Draw: 26.8%

Leverkusen win: 44.3%

Predicted: Leverkusen

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.92

More corners: Leverkusen (32.3% home / 67.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leverkusen

Yes

Probability Leverkusen wins or draws: 71.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Leverkusen Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 29%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (64.0% model probability) High

Corners Leverkusen (more corners) (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leverkusen win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.